• 80% of the ATH order book to be delivered within 12 months
• Higher opex to cut EBIT by 5-7% in 2024e-'26e
• '24e elevated due to third-party order, trades at 31.1x EV/EBIT in '25e

Q1 mostly in line but higher opex than expected

Invisio is starting to face its tough growth comps from 2023, and in that context, the 0% organic growth in Q1 (vs an organic growth comp of 119%) is quite impressive. The upcoming quarters will also be fuelled by the delivery of the large Intercom + third party radio deal, signed in March (link). We estimate around 100% organic growth both in Q2e and Q3e, although the timing of the exact delivery is uncertain. The total order book stood at SEK 1,025m, up 70% vs Q4, and Invisio commented that 80% of the order book is expected to be delivered in the next 12 months, supporting near-term growth rates despite still tough comps. The current market demand remains high and Invisio reiterates the message that results from increased military budgets are expected to be visible from the latter part of 2024 and to continue over many years. This bodes well for both medium- to long-term growth in our view. However, the higher than expected opex of SEK 138m (+8% vs ABGSCe and +4% vs company collected consensus), caused the EBIT miss and affects our estimates negatively.

EBIT cut by 5-7%

We leave sales estimates almost unchanged, while the higher opex base results in a 5-7% cut in EBIT in 2024e-'26e.

Share at 31.1x EV/EBIT in 2025e

Invisio has a strong market position within its niche category and investments from military organisations are poised to increase, which bodes well for further order intake, growth, and good margins. 2024e will be a strong year due to the recent Intercom orders, which is the reason that we estimate a sales and EBIT drop in 2025e. On 2025 revised estimates, the share currently trades at 31.1x EV/EBIT vs its last 5-year average of 38.3x.