• 12% organic growth on tough P&S comps...
• ...while we expect an acceleration from Q2
• Trading at ~6x '24e EV/EBITDA, 15% below peers avg.

Expect solid Q1 with adj. EBITDA up 33% y-o-y

We forecast Q1 normalised sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 38m and EUR 16m, respectively, for sales growth of 35% y-o-y (of which 12% org.) and a margin of 40.5%. The sequential comps in Media are tough following a very strong Q4, and we cautiously await comments from management regarding Google's recent update and what impact it may have on some GiG brands. The large number of FTD's sent on rev-share contracts is comforting, but we expect a small underlying revenue decline q-o-q, while KaFe Rocks is supporting inorganically. In Platform and Sportsbook, we are keen on seeing the long-term growth potential materialise, but we believe that it is too early to see any material P&L impact from the sharply improved pipeline since the new P&S CEO took the helm. On the margin, we estimate a small increase q-o-q on better mix, with KaFe Rocks being margin accretive.

M&A strategy in Media showing its true power

As recently seen in industry peer Raketech's '24 guidance downgrade, Google updates can weigh on some brands in the industry. In addition, we assess that the larger affiliates have shown better resilience relative to smaller ones. As such, the combination of utilising scale while continuing to diversify across brands, products, and geographies is clearly favourable, assuming a smooth integration and post-acquisition optimisation. Looking at AskGamblers for instance, we believe Mr. Warrer and his team has done exactly this, as we see cost optimisation alongside a continued strong visitor data trend.

Below peers for '24e EV/EBITDA but faster growth

Media and Supplier peer groups are trading at 6x and 7x '24e EV/EBITDA, respectively, while GiG is currently trading at ~6x, i.e., in line with the average for Media peers and slightly below Supplier peers' average, while growing faster.